In late 2024 the Fed cut its policy rate by a full point and the 10-year Treasury yield went up by roughly the same amount. That is not a broken market. That is the term premium doing its job.
Between September and December 2024 the Fed cut its policy rate by a full percentage point. Over the same stretch the 10-year Treasury yield rose by roughly a point, from around 3.6% to around 4.6%. Mortgage rates tracked the 10-year rather than the Fed — a 30-year mortgage is roughly the 10-year yield plus a spread that is itself large and moves for its own reasons. Anyone who bought a house expecting cuts to lower their rate learned this the hard way.
— Educational, not financial advice.