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The Daily Capital
NEWS & MARKETS · Lesson 75

Seasonal adjustment: why the jobs number gets revised so much

Daily Desk · Editorial5 min read
Every January the US economy really does lose millions of jobs. The headline still says it gained some. Both numbers are true, and the gap between them is the most misunderstood statistic in markets.

Every January, the US economy really does shed millions of jobs. Retail clerks, warehouse pickers, and delivery drivers hired for the holidays get let go, and the raw payroll count drops by something like 2.5 to 3 million. The headline that morning still reads +150,000 or whatever the month produced. Both numbers are accurate; only one of them is trying to tell you something.

— Educational, not financial advice.