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The Daily Capital
NEWS & MARKETS · Lesson 84

Real yields and breakevens: reading TIPS for inflation expectations

Daily Desk · Editorial5 min read
Subtract the TIPS yield from the Treasury yield and you have the inflation rate the bond market is betting on. It is the cheapest forecast in finance.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.30%. The 10-year TIPS yields 1.90%. Subtract, and you get 2.40% — approximately the average inflation rate the bond market expects over the next decade. That single subtraction is one of the only real-time, market-priced forecasts available to anyone, and it costs nothing to look up.

— Educational, not financial advice.