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The Daily Capital
NEWS & MARKETS · Lesson 66

Core, headline, supercore: which inflation number the Fed is actually watching

Daily Desk · Editorial5 min read
CPI is the number that moves the headlines. Core PCE is the number in the Fed's forecast. Supercore is the number a policymaker checks to see whether wage pressure is still in the system.

CPI prints at 8:30am, the number beats expectations, stocks rip — and then a Fed official says the report was 'not as encouraging as it looks.' Both can be true, because they are not looking at the same line. There are at least three inflation numbers in circulation and they answer three different questions.

Educational, not financial advice.